Negative growth in the shadow of strong global automobile market to seek “change”
71 years first announced. Toyota Motor at the end of this notice, so that Toyota’s joint venture in China of several high-level had to cancel a planned Christmas holidays.
The world’s largest automotive company Toyota’s performance has become the vane of the global automotive industry. Toyota has experienced World War II, experienced the Plaza Accord in 1985, reached the blocking layers of the North American luxury car market.
A long time, Toyota how the story of hardship, not only inspired the automobile sector, but also the world’s best-selling book writer the notes.
Toyota, the status quo to prove that the financial crisis spread to the real economy much faster than we anticipated.
Experienced from 2003 to 2008 cars for six years after the blowout of the good old days, this generation of vehicles, and has also experienced a lifetime the most far-reaching crisis.
December 12 is Japan’s “Chinese Day”, the Japanese Association of Chinese Proficiency Kiyomizu Temple in Kyoto, in accordance with the practice to reflect this year announced the state of the World Chinese characters, the result of “change” was elected as the annual Chinese characters.
“Change” but also throughout the world of motor vehicles in 2008. This year, the domestic automobile market experienced dramatic ups and downs. Despite the early snow disaster, but car sales are still more than 25% increase in the first quarter of a perfect end. At the same time, this wonderful data blinded to the majority of talents, in total disregard of the overseas crisis is approaching this fact; the second quarter, the rate of increase has slowed down.
Of course, there is one other reason: Wenchuan earthquake. But statistics show that the automobile market in Sichuan in May suffered only short-term blow to mid-June in Chengdu of car sales to reach its highest point ever.
The third quarter, the weak automobile market has been attributed to all the people involved in the Olympic Games because of an upsurge, in fact, at this time, the global auto market is slowing down.
In June, the U.S. auto market fell 17.6 percent, in July the European market also declined 2.4 percent pace of adjustment, the Japanese market at the end of this month, appears rare sales dropped 10 percent.
In September, Lehman Brothers bankruptcy as a financial crisis to the global spread of a starting point, in October in Detroit, “three” GM, Ford, Chrysler insolvency crisis would mean the destruction of the automobile market fundamentals; by the end of December, Toyota Motor rare, the end of the global automotive over the past 50 years the situation continued to grow.
Just prior to October, China’s automobile market is also looking at the mentality of a curious vertical decline in the U.S. automobile market, but, when the Paris auto show in October auto CEO who have issued “Declaration sadness,” the general trend of the domestic have begun to feel anything but reassuring.
In September, the Chinese automobile market emerged in the past 30 years the first year-on-year decline. November, automobile market than the same period last year and the ring more than 10% of the substantial decline in the warmer October proved short-lived.
After October, has been shouting “emerging markets can be immune,” the experts and scholars disappear from the Chamber, the Russian market of passenger cars in November than the decline in production in Central 23.4% year-on-year 7.2 percent decline. Brazilian market have also experienced an 26.3 percent decline. India Automobile Manufacturers Association Chairman Dilip Chenoy said that India’s history had not occurred as 10,11 this year on the automotive market is depressed, car sales in October fell 6.6 percent year-on-year. Even worse in November, passenger car sales fell 19.4 percent year-on-year. Commercial vehicles such as trucks and bus sales shrunk nearly half of the same period last year.
After December, has always been like this the end of the month in which boasted “a grand marketing plan in 2009″ wait patiently for the vendors saying good-bye to the final production line in a line of vehicles, quietly began to convene all inventory stocks.
From cautious optimism to pessimism
Optimistic? Cautiously optimistic? Cautious or pessimistic?
This is not a common choice, but the Chinese car dealer in a large number of views and in front of a judge must choose. This seemingly is not very different from the answer choices could lead to a year later, China’s major car dealers completely different results.
Automobile market decline? This is certainly not the worst of times, as long as the normal attitude to look at the callback automobile market. Chinese car dealers have become accustomed to the 6-year sustained growth of around 20 percent, but carefully, in fact, more than 20% of consecutive years of sustained growth, the event itself can not demand expectations.
Lin Yifu, chief economist at the World Bank believes that our country in this year’s GDP growth is expected to reach 7.4 percent, North America and Japan’s economic growth rate is estimated at between 0 ~ -1%, and these countries, our country’s GDP growth could reach 7 % has been commendable.
In 2008 the successful Dongfeng Honda Executive Vice President Liu and said: “The reform and opening up more than 30 years, no one-year GDP growth is negative growth in the automotive market. And the car has been greater than the increase in GDP growth.”
In these judgments, there is a basic principle is that growth and GDP growth in automobile market relevance, because a long time, the Chinese automobile market and the increase in the proportion of GDP has been around 2:1, because next year based on GDP “Paul 8″ of the the possibility that the automobile market 5% ~ 10% growth will still be expected.
However, this still is an experience-based judge, because in the automobile market blowout 6 years of development, such laws exist. But it is worth noting that, from the beginning of 2009, China’s automobile market has begun to turn downward, so there is a recession may be in a market, for the experience of peace and prosperity can not be used to drop in the size of the market summary, you can make a significant question mark.
We are accustomed to the experience and history in the face of compromise, but even so, more car companies, “a cat in winter.” Until now, the most pessimistic estimate is December 15, president of Volkswagen Global text predicted the global automobile market in 2009 fell 20 percent judgments. Jianghuai Automobile domestic passenger Dynasty Yun, general manager of the domestic automobile market seems to judge also pessimistic than some of the text.
Because the demand for the rapid decline in global auto giants have started to reduce production capacity to implement austerity strategy. In the past two weeks, the sales dropped by the impact of General Motors, Toyota Motor and Honda Motor has announced a substantial reduction measures. Volkswagen also announced a large-scale production capacity reduction plan.
Change and the future
Toyota Motor rare loss for the first time 71 years, mean that the complete deterioration of the global automobile market?
The world’s first automobile giants downlink and Detroit, “three” is facing the threat of bankruptcy would mean that the automobile industry a more deep-seated changes just around the corner, led by the government and support for new energy vehicles and global automotive industry a thorough and far-reaching also the coming reorganization.
Toyota Motor president Katsuaki Watanabe said: “The world economy was beset by unrest in rare, this is an unprecedented critical moment. Unfortunately, now I can not see at the bottom of where our case an emergency of unprecedented scale.”
And because the great relevance of the automotive industry and related industries to promote, and the global automotive group into recession, will force more change is imminent. Iron and steel industry, the automotive aftermarket industry, chain gas stations, auto insurance industry and related industries … … behind the industrial workers are the most direct and employment, but they are a very large groups, their fate will be with the industry’s turmoil change, this is the current attention to attract the highest level of the core of the automotive industry.
Including the United States President-elect Barack Obama, including many leaders have made it clear that the storm will be wandering the automotive industry to implement relief, but at the same time, both German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and U.S. President-elect oba Ma and other leading countries in the global automotive leader in the automotive industry have expressed will of the environmental protection and technological revolution to implement a major influence, given the current already very fragile and deteriorating environmental factors, including under the Government to promote restructuring, technological revolution and the consumer revolution has been brewing.
Premier Wen Jiabao last week to inspect Changan Automotive Group, said that three new initiatives to save the market: First, expand the rural market; Second, hope the Government will support the development of small displacement, low-power car; The third is to strengthen the independent innovation, develop new products and new varieties. In addition, the Prime Minister also added a: mergers and acquisitions is to expand the scale and accelerate the pace of reform. The highest level of order, to save the market has already begun vigorous. Our cars will start the revolution ignited, including central and local governments are making some of the policies.
After the winter after the automobile market and eliminate the competitiveness of the lower part of blindly expanding production capacity and extravagance and waste of brands and manufacturers, this is a very natural process of survival of the fittest.
6 years blowout left a pile of automobile market, some automotive companies wantonly enclosure 6 years and the expansion of production capacity, Geely Automobile claims there are 10 bases, planning capacity almost two million; Chery Automobile production plant in Wuhu is serious overcapacity. Changfeng Automobile and Jianghuai Automobile sales plans from the production capacity for several large part of poor.
In this sense, China’s auto industry needs such a cold, and promote industrial upgrading to first in the technology and manufacturing at close to even catch up with international automobile development. Therefore, the government can rescue the market through policy guidance, issued a number of automobile consumption in favor of incentive measures to encourage the Chinese market to better meet the environmental, economic model of the universal effort. At the same time, increase the industry’s restructuring, led by local governments to reduce redundant construction industry, save social resources.