This year is the 20th anniversary of South Korea and China established diplomatic relations. South Korea and China in the Cold War hostility. August 24, 1992, Korea established formal diplomatic relations since China surpassed the United States and Japan to become Korea’s largest trading nation.
2011, China surpassed Japan as the world’s second largest economy. With the rapid development of China’s economic and military expansion, as the new hegemonic power. It was predicted that by 2020 China will overtake the U.S. as the world’s GDP ranks first in the country.
Face the immediate recovery,
Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage predicted that South Korea will depend heavily on the Chinese economy, but will not belong to China. But others predict that, with China leading the global political and economic, Korea will eventually enter China’s sphere of influence.
Armitage: South Korea but is not affiliated with China depends
Armitage last month near Washington office said in an interview:
He said: important role in South Korea is no longer ant Korea does not belong to China.
Armitage A: The U.S. and China concluded that to maintain I think South Korea is the same. South Korea’s economic relations with China are inseparable.
Q: China worried about which side?
A: China’s military expansion in what way will be hard to predict. These concerns were dispelled in the former can not relax vigilance against China.
Q: It is predicted that China will soon surpass the United States, how do you think?
A: I do not think so. Although the United States can not continue to maintain an overwhelming advantage, but whether it is in the GDP, or military strength, China will catch up with the United States a long way to go. And China has many domestic problems to be solved, China will soon overtake the United States say some haste.
Q: How should contain the rise of China?
A: must contain, but South Korea and Japan in the political, economic to keep strong, China can not become a victim. United States will also play this role in Asia, but not in Korea and Japan is unlikely to help.
Q: In the future China and the ROK-US Alliance will not be shaken?
A: Frankly speaking, the Korea-US relations have been difficult times, but ultimately beneficial to both sides are moving in the direction of safety. I think the short term will not change in this direction.
Some experts: South Korea will enter the Chinese sphere of influence
Many view that as China’s rapid economic development and national flourishing, South Korea, it may ultimately into China’s sphere of influence.
U.S. Defense Policy Board member Robert Kaplan in 2010 proposed the can not get rid of Chinese influence in the country.
Kaplan believes that China’s influence will be extended to South Korea, the Russian Far East, Central Asia, the South China Sea, Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia.
Harvard professor Niall Ferguson also wrote:
South Korea’s trade volume of China’s trade volume has exceeded the United States. Part of the United States to reduce the influence of China will be occupied. Immediately next to the United States and China, South Korea will face a selection dilemma of the United States or China.
Many scholars of international politics that, in the
University of Southern California Professor David Kang believes will occur in East Asia led by China, the new hierarchical order. He said that East Asian countries including South Korea over the past 30 years have been made to adapt to rapid economic development of China, China’s economic dependence on the greatly improved, resulting in the Chinese-led regional order is inevitable. South Korea will also be included within the order.
Experts believe that Japan is the only challenge to China’s state, but South Korea and Japan to fight against China is unlikely. Although South Korea because of historical reasons, had an aversion to China, but in the past occupation of Korea by force, and declared Dokdo (known as Takeshima in Japan – Note this newspaper) greater resentment of Japan’s sovereignty.
Experts predict that if a unified Korean peninsula, South Korea and China relations will become even closer. Kaplan pointed out that
Military sources: multi-mode seeking military cooperation with China
Chinese Academy of Sciences, End of this century, China is difficult to surpass the U.S. in the military.
In fact, China in the past few years in the Navy, Air Force and space, the missile can be said that growth in the field of impressive. China also imported from Ukraine, It is predicted that China will independently develop aircraft carriers, and in 2015 the water.
But many people assess that the level of weapons from China, the scale of strategic weapons and defense costs, etc., China is difficult in the next 30 years to 50 years surpass the United States.
According to the British International Institute for Strategic Studies report released in late 2010, the standard to measure sea, that the total tonnage of naval ships (total displacement vessels), the U.S. Navy to 312.1014 million tons, ranking second to China and other Section 14 of the country’s combined major. Chinese ships of the total tonnage of 68 tons.
Military experts say that if the United States to take China’s national defense science and technology compared with the field of conventional arms off for 30 years, 20 years behind nuclear weapons, in space 10 to 15 years behind.
Korea Institute for Defense specialist researcher Li Changheng defense (sound) said: >
The face of growing Chinese military power, South Korean military authorities are taking great pains to study the multi-angle response strategies.
In response, China will deploy aircraft carrier combat situation, South Korea is developing in the event of war attack aircraft carriers, supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles, and consider the construction of small submarines. Because the Korean West Sea (Yellow Sea – Note this newspaper) shallow water, the need is not so noticeable a small submarine.
South Korean troops from the mid-1990s started to Aegis destroyers, early warning aircraft and other sophisticated weapons combat, do not actually because of North Korea, but in response to a unified future from China or Japan and other aspects of military threat.
However, a South Korean military official said:
Should develop a new level of security strategy, on the one hand to the ROK-US alliance, based on the one hand for a variety of models with the Chinese military cooperation.