Archive for March, 2012

from the point of view the intervention in Libya last year

Thursday, March 15th, 2012

Air Sea Battle, Once the war, Iran is likely to become the first block of experimental field.
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Since the outbreak of the The two countries conducted several military exercises targeted the U.S. aircraft carrier fleet access to the Persian Gulf, Iran to be outdone, stated intention to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, high-profile announcement of its nuclear technology breakthrough and interrupted oil to Britain and France and other countries exports, while warning the United States shall not use of force, but also forced the latter mean that before the return to the negotiating table.

These initiatives against Iran, the United States in the end what will happen to the cards it? Mainly depends on the following aspects: First, Israel’s attitude to the party believes that Iran is a nuclear weapon may be two or three years, which is very dangerous for Israel, Iraq has taken tough measures without delay; Second, U.S. domestic politics needs this year is an election year, Democratic and Republican parties will focus on Iran’s fierce battle; Third, the U.S. economic recovery, the United States is still suffering from the economic crisis plagued the domestic unemployment rate is high; Fourth, Iran’s policy direction , such as whether development of the country with nuclear weapons. Integrated current situation, the United States and Iraq have maintained restraint, they were not touched each other’s bottom line, there is no will negotiate the door locked. However, the haze of war is still enveloped in over the Persian Gulf, there is always the possibility of military conflict between the United States and Iraq.

In May 2010, the U.S. U.S. Air Force and the Navy signed a confidential memorandum, proposed joint development of new operational concepts. Shortly thereafter, the then U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates in a speech, initially confirmed the connotation of

Air Sea Battle, The first phase began in the outbreak of hostilities, including the four operational plan: First, to resist the first wave of attack, to reduce the extent of the damage from the army; enemy battle network launched the surveillance, reconnaissance and combat system, the implementation of repression; is to win and maintain the advantages of air, sea, system space and system network space. The second phase of the action is designed to support the United States to win the long-term conventional war: First, carry out a protracted war, including keeping and use of the initiative in various battlefield; Second, the implementation of the Remote blockade; is to maintain the logistical capacity; four The expansion of industrial production. The two stage is not necessarily a clear distinction between, some follow-up can be used as a continuation of the early action.

Strategic and Budgetary Assessments president Andrew Krepinevich authored

Any operational theory for the practice of war, operational theory, battle-tested after the more complete and efficient. To some extent, Air Sea Battle, However, this operational concept is more like for the Western Pacific region, tailored the U.S. military still want to be validated in the medium-scale military conflict, and continuous improvement. Only in this way, it may occupy a favorable position in the next higher level of military conflict.

Near several local wars, the opponents of the United States most of the strength of the flat, every war has emerged as a one-sided situation, did not cause too much challenge. In addition, from the point of view the intervention in Libya last year, the United States and its allies increasingly focused on the control of the cost of war is not to win regardless of the costs.

However, when faced with such an opponent in Iran, the United States directly copy the ideas similar to the Libyan war is obviously not feasible: First, Iran’s anti-American sentiment, is basically the same line, it is difficult to powerful armed opposition. Second, the large number of Iranian military weaponry, and just rely on the Therefore, the U.S. must re-enact the Iraq battle plan and strategy, once the war, Iran is likely to become one Air Sea Battle


then the next civil war will immediately stage a comeback.

Monday, March 12th, 2012

Away remember Qaddafi died, cheering people, even those who claim the credit in the other side of the globe here, many people are shouting the end of an era of a hegemonic, to celebrate the victory of the opposition, there is no lack of continuous Posting , and even forged visits in the field and fabrication of a variety of stories to package their own people. As for Libya Gaddafi’s death look like, how the living of the people of Libya, they do not care about, because they have targeted Syria, pointing to the next one to use words to defeat the government.
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However, a few days before CCTV one news allows the author was shocked when the two tribes of Libya clashed again, causing many casualties. Sadly, this video news actually now still does not correspond to the version of the text, click-through rate is also only a handful, as if overnight, Libya has lost all interest. It seems that the spectators who originally interested in just Gaddafi’s life and death, they put the whole of Libya’s civil war as a movie to watch, the film must have good guys and bad guys, the evil guy must die, after the movie ended The stories do not need them to consider.

So, naturally no one will know that Gaddafi after the death of the Libyan tribes armed conflict continued, new resentment settle old scores, and there are seats and seize territory and carve up the interests of sub playing up. It is reported that this Libya two tribes since the 12th of this month, the outbreak of the bloody conflict in Ku Fula, 135 people were killed. The struggle between the senior administration side of the political struggle is more intense during the civil war, we are the opposition, civil war after the end of each forces are beginning to serve their own interests to fight, step down after another of the situation is beginning to show.

Chaotic situation, the resident reporter in an interview that: on the one hand, the tribal militants and militias in the last year, the struggle to overthrow the Qaddafi regime played an important role as capital to the government to ask for more power and interests , in the case of the government can not meet the requirements through the use of force from time to time to capture the sites and resources. Libyan tribes, on the other hand, many deep-rooted clan interests and contradictions between some of the tribes for a long time, now the lack of security systems, inter-tribal violence in the way to try to solve the problem.

But in fact, these conflicts are inevitable factors. I wrote in August, when the downfall of the Gaddafi Houkazhafei era Libya contradiction will become even more intensified, resolved within: the contradiction between the First picture of the oil resources of the tribal elite groups and the general public is difficult to reconcile the two is difficult to reconcile the contradiction between the tribes and tribes lost a tribal vote, and the third is the national interest interests is difficult to reconcile with the tribes, is difficult to reconcile national interests in Libya.

And these contradictions are a direct result of warfare today, even Libya, one year after the sound of the police and armed forces, the absorption of as much as possible the original opposition armed forces to become the government’s public officials, these contradictions still exist. More critical, the last civil war has been the interests of the force demands of the seeds planted for the people, the government in the distribution of benefits of the oil if the small tribes with oil, with the major tribes of the oil does not possess the major tribes of the oil any party to the ordinary people are dissatisfied, then the next civil war will immediately stage a comeback.

It can be said that Libya has now become dilapidated, but also the scholars said that depends on the status of the democratic developed countries, do not see a democratic transition countries. But in fact the Libyan torn democratic fig leaf, but the other tribes of a power struggle with the Gaddafi family, tribe melee only, not elegant, is not beautiful. These hand-held jasmine preacher naturally not tell you, according to the United Kingdom recently published research report, Libya is now more than one-third of people want to return to the era of rule of strongman politics, a lot of people for the democratic system do not trust.

In my opinion, those enthusiasts the moment faded so that Libya is even more bleak, and we sincerely hope that the Libyan people can live better, hope that the situation in Libya can gradually stabilize. But as long as those spectators who like to watch movies exist, hard to say Syria will be the next Libya.